Let us consider North Korea's likely
behavior during an American war in Iraq. Some observers have noted
that the North's behavior, which had been difficult but on average
constructive, suddenly turned very negative in October. It is no
coincidence that this dramatic change in policy followed directly on
the heels of George Bush's public declaration of his intent to invade
Iraq. The US has been pursuing the same containment strategy against
North Korea that it used so successfully against the Soviet Union.
Keep them contained, keep them peaceful, and force them into economic
collapse from which a more accommodating government will emerge.
North Korea is approaching the endgame. Without economic support from
the Soviet Union and China, the North Korean economy has been
grinding down towards collapse. North Korea is facing the same abyss
that the Japanese faced in 1941, on a much broader scale. The
Japanese were faced with the loss of oil crucial to their military
adventures. Running out of time, they chose to attack. The North
Koreans will do the same thing, only they have a more viable strategy
available to them. They don't need to defeat the US militarily. They
don't even need to conquer South Korea. All they need to do is send a
single thrust south along the central axis of the Korean peninsula,
curving west just below Seoul. A march of about 100 miles, requiring
perhaps 5 days, will pocket Seoul and yield some 15 million hostages.
The North Koreans then need merely wait for the disruption in basic
services in Seoul to start generating suitably impressive daily
mortality figures. Humanitarian considerations will force the US and
South Korea to agree to an immediate cessation of hostilities --
under North Korean terms.
This the only logical option available to the North Korean
leadership; unless they pursue this course, they face collapse. And
their behavior since October can be explained only by this thesis. In
the past, their provocations have been directed at gaining advantages
at the negotiating table, and so have been carefully meted out: just
enough provocation to give them another playing card, but not so much
as to discourage their interlocutors from playing the game. But their
behavior since October has represented a complete break with the
past: they have piled provocation on provocation without waiting for
reactions from the US. Even more revealing is their diplomatic
invective. Normally their announcements drip with vitriol, but this
time there is a fundamental change in the content of their diatribes.
Whereas in the past their announcements painted the USA as a
bloodthirsty aggressor seeking to destroy the peace-loving North
Korean people, now they talk openly of war. While American official
reaction paints this all as merely a diplomatic misunderstanding,
North Korean communiques drip with references to military
conflagration. In an ironic turn, one North Korean official's public
comments used phrasing similar to President Bush's State of the Union
address: if war is forced upon us, we shall not shirk.
To make matters worse, North Korea has had 50 years to build a huge
tunnel network along the cease-fire line. It is now large enough to
house the entire North Korean army and provide it with complete
concealment from satellite observation as well as immunity from air
attack. They can concentrate their army at any point on the cease
fire line with total surprise and complete immunity. Once they're out
in the open, of course, American air power can be brought to bear --
unless, of course, that air power is concentrated in the Middle
East.
I believe that the Bush administration is aware of these
possibilities and is attempting to cope by making nice noises in
North Korea's direction, as well as putting heavy pressure on China
to restrain the North Koreans. China will likely give the Americans
pro-forma support, but it is in China's interest to see American
power in the Far East take a crippling blow. The demonstrated failure
of the USA to protect its most important client in East Asia will fit
perfectly into China's long-term strategy of establishing diplomatic
hegemony in the Far East. Seeing which way the wind is blowing,
Taiwan, VietNam, the Philippines, and even Japan will shift their
diplomatic positions to be more accommodating to Chinese wishes.
For these reasons, I believe that an American attack on Iraq will
mark the high point of American fortunes. Within weeks of the victory
in Baghdad, American power will begin a steady decline from which it
will likely never recover.